Are you killing yourself and you don’t know it?
The risks of increased likelihood of death from smoking are reasonably clear and well understood. Most of us have stopped smoking and see the act of putting a cigarette (aka cancer stick) into our mouth as very risky for our health.
However, there are a lot of other habits we ritually perform without even realising they could also be equally harmful for us.
But what if we could relate these habits to the same effect as a cigarette?
This is what I am calling the Cigarette Index.
One cigarette = 11 minutes of life
There was a very insightful article regarding smoking and longevity that kicked off this investigation: Time for a smoke? One cigarette reduces your life by 11 minutes.
They estimated the amount of life lost in smoking one cigarette to be 11 minutes. They based their calculations on an average life expectancy difference between smokers and non-smokers of 6.5 years, and that an average number of cigarettes smoked per year is approx 5772.
The calculation then becomes:
- 6.5 years = 2374 days, 56,976 hours, or 3,418,560 minutes
- 5772 cigarettes per year for 54 years = 311,688 cigarettes (assume they smoke from 17 to 71)
- 3,418,560 / 311,688 = 11 minutes per cigarette
The calculation relies on averages and assumptions, and that the number of cigarettes smoked stays constant. However it shows the high cost of smoking in a way that everyone can understand.
Other studies, including Tobacco-Related Mortality, indicate that life expectancy is shortened by more than 10 years compared with those who had never smoked. (If you stop before 40 then you can reduce this figure by 90% luckily…)
They also mention that the rate of death from any cause among smokers was about 3x times that among those who had never smoked.
The index
Ok let’s have a go at matching some other behaviours to our Cigarette Index — ie how many cigarettes per day do these habits equate to. For my calculations I also assume that a change in mortality percentage also changes life expectancy by the same proportion.
Vaping = 1 cigarette every 20 days
Vaping is 95% healthier than cigarettes which is also quite surprising. So this equates to one cigarette every 20 days.
Being overweight = 20 cigarettes per day
If you have a BMI (body mass index) of 40 or higher this equates to a reduced life expectancy of 8–10 years. This is pretty close to what our smoking study also showed based on 20 cigarettes per day.
Another way of looking at this is that each day of being 5kg (11lbs) overweight equates to a half hour of life reduction = 3 cigarettes per day.
Drinking soda = 10 cigarettes per day
One study on humans shows that a 20 ounce (600ml) sugar sweetened soda per day equals 4.6 additional years of cell aging. This is approximately half the cigarette reduction so we give it a CI rating of 10.
Another study to back this up shows high sugar consumption (20% of energy intake) equating to a 30% increased mortality risk.
Artificial sweeteners = 0 cigarettes per day
Current research doesn’t show any difference in mortality for those consuming artificial sweeteners.
Red meat = 2 cigarettes per steak / burger
And 4 cigarettes per serving of bacon / sausage.
Studies show the following increase in mortality for red meat:
- Red meat, 1 serving per day = 13% increase in mortality
- Processed red meat, 1 serving per day = 20% increase in mortality
The data from this report shows that a serving of red meat reduces lifespan by a half hour, so this is approx 2 cigarettes, and processed meat is double this.
Drinking alcohol = 1 cigarette per beer
7 units of alcohol, or approximately 2 pints of strong beer, equates to a half hour life expectancy reduction. This works out at approx 2–3 cigarettes for 2 pints of beer, so I have simplified to 1 beer = 1 cigarette.
Moderate alcohol consumption (1–2 units or less per day, max of 7 per week for women and less than 3 per day for men with max of 14 per week) equates to an 18% increase in premature death.
No fruit or vegetables = 6 cigarettes per day
Research shows that those who have more than 5 servings of fruit or vegetables per day benefit from an average increase in lifespan by 4.3 years for men and 2.7 years for women. If we take a midpoint of 3.5 years, this is about a third of pack a day increase.
There’s also some interesting statistics on nuts. 3 servings per week lowered risk of premature death by 39%.
No exercise = 6 cigarettes per day
This study shows that 15 minutes of moderate physical exercise had a 14% reduced risk of mortality and had a 3 year longer life expectancy.
Every additional 15 minutes of daily exercise further reduced mortality by 4%.
Another study found something similar. Any exercise equated to a 22% lower risk of death, with up to 150 minutes per week increasing this to 28% and then 35% for over 150 minutes per week.
Loneliness = 15 cigarettes per day
The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared loneliness to be a pressing global health threat, with the US surgeon general saying its mortality effects are equivalent to smoking 15 cigarettes a day.
Lack of education = 18 cigarettes per day
The statistics show that a 25 year old man with a high school diploma has a 9.3 year shorter lifespan on average versus the equivalent person with a bachelor’s degree. Higher education levels are associated with lower levels of obesity and tobacco use, so this reduction overlaps with those two and can’t be taken cumulatively.
Living in Africa = 60 cigarettes per day
This might not be a great analogy, but there are numerous countries in Africa where currently the average life expectancy is very low. For example Chad has an average life expectancy of 49.8 years, compared to the US of 78.8.
Polluted city living = 4 cigarettes per day
According to the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC), air pollution (the result of burning fossil fuels) takes 2.2 years off the average global life expectancy.
Sunbathing = 1 cigarette per day
Studies show that highest sun exposure group compared to the lowest had a 3% increased chance of mortality. This isn’t quite 1 cigarette but close enough.
Lack of sleep or shift work = 5 cigarettes per bad night’s sleep
Less than 5–7 hours of sleep per night equates to a 12% greater risk of early death.
Similarly disrupting your natural circadian sleep cycle — ie being awake for more than two hours during your biological night, especially if you are a shift worker — you are 11% more likely to die early than compared to non shift workers. This increases stress and also affects mental health.
No coffee = 1 cigarette per coffee missed
6 cups of coffee per day results in a 20% lower risk of early death according to this study, compared to a non coffee drinker.
If we assume that 15% = 3 years from the exercise report, then 20% could be taken to be 4 years. 4 years is 40% of 10 years, so 40% of a pack of cigarettes = 5 cigarettes. So missing a coffee is the same as smoking a cigarette.
Stress = 2 cigarettes per day of stress
This is a hard one to quantify. There are several studies in this area:
- Being happy = 3.7% reduction in early death
- Being pessimistic = 42% higher risk of early death
- Social ties: 3 social ties = decreases risk of early death by 200%
I took the happiness reduction, which is about a 1/3 of the lack of sleep cigarette index, so this equates 1 day of stress to about 2 cigarettes.
Being pessimistic = 5 cigarettes per day
People with higher levels of optimism show a 35% lower risk of cardiovascular events as well a lower mortality rate… Most likely since optimistic people tend to take better care of themselves, eating healthily and exercising. Pessimistic people also have increase stress hormones like cortisol which lead to inflammation and onset of disease.
No goals = 5 cigarettes per day
Those of us who are conscientious — ie organised, efficient, self-disciplined and goal oriented — lived 11% longer than those less conscientious.
Closing thoughts
I hope the way each of the above conditions relates to my Cigarette Index has given you a new way to look at the dangers of other activities you might be pursuing!
It’s highly likely I have made assumptions or calculations that need to be adjusted, so if anything stands out let me know. Similarly if there is any other behaviour or condition that we can add to the list above, feel free to pass me the details.
My aim is to try and make the Cigarette Index as accurate and comprehensive as possible and to use it to alarm and shock those who might not realise the health implications of things like eating red meat or not exercising.
So now you have to ask yourself: if you wouldn’t smoke two cigarettes at lunch, why do you feel fine about having a steak instead?